Published By
Created On
19 Apr 2019 11:39:09 UTC
Transaction ID
Cost
Safe for Work
Free
Yes
One month tip forecasts for some LBRY creators
This is just a repost of lbry://@BrendonBrewer/forecasts to the Community Top Bids area.
DISCLAIMER: This information is provided for entertainment purposes only. For instance, prior to 2019-04-10, there was a very dumb bug which made the numbers all wrong. Hey, at least *that* bug is gone now. NOTE: If a channel owner routinely withdraws their tips, the numbers here will not reflect those tips!
I used [TipPredict](https://github.com/eggplantbren/TipPredict) to forecast LBC tips received over the next month for some publishers on LBRY. This is a CSV file containing a low, a medium, and a high prediction for each of the creators on the list. I made quite basic "status quo" assumptions, which assume that the next month is quite likely to look similar to previous months apart from typical statistical fluctuations.
If people find this service useful, I can make the assumptions much more realistic and sophisticated, including things like trends,
spikes when you publish, and the fact that what's observed for other
channels has some bearing on what you might predict for a particular
channel.
So far the list of channels I've analysed is quite short (but it's longer than what you see in the thumbnail). If you'd like to be added to the list or removed from it the next time I update this file, contact me on Keybase or the LBRY Discord.
Formally, conditional on my assumptions, the probability of the next month's tips being between the low and high forecast is 90%, and it's 50/50 whether it's above or below the medium forecast. Some creators have more uncertain forecasts than others. This is due to two main effects: (i) a shorter tip history, so there's less data to extrapolate from, and/or (ii) greater variation in the size of tips received in the past, which propagates through to greater uncertainty in the size of future tips received.
DISCLAIMER: This information is provided for entertainment purposes only. For instance, prior to 2019-04-10, there was a very dumb bug which made the numbers all wrong. Hey, at least *that* bug is gone now. NOTE: If a channel owner routinely withdraws their tips, the numbers here will not reflect those tips!
I used [TipPredict](https://github.com/eggplantbren/TipPredict) to forecast LBC tips received over the next month for some publishers on LBRY. This is a CSV file containing a low, a medium, and a high prediction for each of the creators on the list. I made quite basic "status quo" assumptions, which assume that the next month is quite likely to look similar to previous months apart from typical statistical fluctuations.
If people find this service useful, I can make the assumptions much more realistic and sophisticated, including things like trends,
spikes when you publish, and the fact that what's observed for other
channels has some bearing on what you might predict for a particular
channel.
So far the list of channels I've analysed is quite short (but it's longer than what you see in the thumbnail). If you'd like to be added to the list or removed from it the next time I update this file, contact me on Keybase or the LBRY Discord.
Formally, conditional on my assumptions, the probability of the next month's tips being between the low and high forecast is 90%, and it's 50/50 whether it's above or below the medium forecast. Some creators have more uncertain forecasts than others. This is due to two main effects: (i) a shorter tip history, so there's less data to extrapolate from, and/or (ii) greater variation in the size of tips received in the past, which propagates through to greater uncertainty in the size of future tips received.
Author
Content Type
Unspecified
text/csv
Language
English
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DISCLAIMER: This information is provided for entertainment purposes only. For instance, prior to 2019-04-10, there was a very dumb bug which made the numbers all wrong. Hey, at least *that* bug is gone now.
I used TipPredict (https://github.com/eggplantbren/TipPredict) to forecast LBC tips received over the next month for some publishers on LBRY. This is a CSV file containing a low, a medium, and a high prediction for each of the creators on the list. The assumptions I used were quite basic "status quo" type assumptions, which assume that the next month is quite likely to look similar to previous months. If people find this service useful, I can make the assumptions much more realistic and sophisticated, including things like trends, and spikes when you publish.
So far the list of channels I've analysed is quite short (but it's longer than what you see in the thumbnail). If you'd like to be added to the list or removed from it the next time I update this file, contact me on Keybase or the LBRY Discord.
Formally, conditional on my assumptions, the probability of the next month's tips being between the low and high forecast is 90%, and it's 50/50 whether it's above or below the medium forecast. Some creators have more uncertain forecasts than others. This is due to two main effects: (i) a shorter tip history, so there's less data to extrapolate from, and/or (ii) greater variation in the size of tips received in the past, which propagates through to greater uncertainty in the size of future tips received.
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