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Still Report #469 - Trump's #1 Key Factor to Success
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Despite a Sunday CNN poll which showed Donald Trump increasing his lead in Iowa, yesterday, the Washington Post came out with a wildly contradictory poll that showed Ted Cruz moving ahead of Trump in Iowa polling.
The Post admitted that it’s poll was an outlier. In other words, most other polls still show Trump in the lead.
But the Post poll showed Trump at only 15% - that’s between 7 and 15 percentage points lower than 6 other Iowa polls.
[insert graph]
The designers of the Post’s poll – two Iowa State political science professors, David Anderson, and David Peterson – explained why they got a different result.
Trump’s run in the polls has defied all known historic patterns so far. Their question was: why?
Their theory was that Trump’s support comes mostly from middle-class voters who don’t buy into typical political speak. These voters see professional politicians as generally untrustworthy – a pack of professional liars who will do anything – say anything to get elected, and then lie some more about what they lied about previously to get elected.
It’s no surprise that these people don’t generally come out to vote. They feel they don’t have a horse in the race – someone they can trust. But they can come out if motivated by a candidate who they feel represents their values for the first time -- a candidate they can trust. To them, that spells Trump to a “T”.
To see if this was a correct assumption, Anderson and Peterson asked about the voting patterns of the 486 Republican voters they sampled.
In their sample, 78% had voted in a presidential primary in the last 10 years. In other polls only 48% had voted in a primary since 2006.
[insert graph 2]
Only 13% those who had voted in at least one primary supported Trump, compared with 21% who had not voted in the last 10 years.
[insert 3}
Bottom line – Trump’s supporters don’t vote as often – again, no surprise there.
When asked how likely it would be for these voters to attend the upcoming caucus in Iowa, over twice as many who had voted before said they would definitely be attending, compared to those who had not voted in a primary in the last 10 years.
So, it’s easier to say you will vote for Trump, then to actually go out and do it on election day.
Trump’s people are angry, but the one key factor to his success cannot be determined by any poll. It can only be measured after the first few votes have been cast. Are they angry enough to come out?
In 2012, voter turnout for the primaries set record lows – less that 16% of eligible voters actually turned out.
That leaves plenty of room for angry, infrequent voters to dominate the political landscape starting in just two months – if Trump can get them off their couches on election day. And there is just no way to accurately predict that behavior until the actual voting begins, Monday, Feb. 1 in Iowa, followed on Tuesday, Feb. 9 in New Hampshire, than 11 days later in South Carolina.
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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