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Still Report #655 - Trump - 97% Chance
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Even before next Tuesday’s SEC primaries in 14 states, Donald Trump currently has at least a 97% chance of becoming the next President of the United States.
According to Prof. Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling, Trump now has a 97% chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99% chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
Prof. Norpoth is a full professor of political science at Stony Brook University, Stonybrook, NY. He specializes in electoral behavior alignment.
Norpoth’s statistical model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912 – except for the 1960 election where the Chicago mob held back the Chicago vote until they saw how many votes Jack Kennedy needed to beat Nixon.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth told the campus newspaper, The Statesman.
Norpoth’s model measures a candidate’s pre-nomination performances in primaries and caucuses. It also measures voter excitement and certain patterns in electoral cycles.
Norpoth revealed his prediction at a SUNY alumni dinner – not exactly welcome news to the heavily Long Island group.
He says his model shows that there is a 61% chance that any Republican nominee will win the 2016 presidential election, but:
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent….”
“When I started out … a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke. Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore. Take it to the bank.”
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Even before next Tuesday’s SEC primaries in 14 states, Donald Trump currently has at least a 97% chance of becoming the next President of the United States.
According to Prof. Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling, Trump now has a 97% chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99% chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
Prof. Norpoth is a full professor of political science at Stony Brook University, Stonybrook, NY. He specializes in electoral behavior alignment.
Norpoth’s statistical model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912 – except for the 1960 election where the Chicago mob held back the Chicago vote until they saw how many votes Jack Kennedy needed to beat Nixon.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth told the campus newspaper, The Statesman.
Norpoth’s model measures a candidate’s pre-nomination performances in primaries and caucuses. It also measures voter excitement and certain patterns in electoral cycles.
Norpoth revealed his prediction at a SUNY alumni dinner – not exactly welcome news to the heavily Long Island group.
He says his model shows that there is a 61% chance that any Republican nominee will win the 2016 presidential election, but:
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent….”
“When I started out … a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke. Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore. Take it to the bank.”
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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SR 1226 –Trump Snatches Lead in All Age Groups from Crooked Hillary
Donald Trump is surging farther ahead of Hillary Clinton in the USC Daybreak Poll.
Since the debate on Monday night, Trump has risen by 1.1% to 47.3% and Clinton has fallen one percent to 42.7%. That gives Trump a very healthy 5.6% lead. Notice also that today, Trump has surged above the poll’s “95% confidence interval”. According to the USC pollsters:
“Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.”
One of the interesting things about the Daybreak poll is it the only one that does not rely only on those who have voted in previous elections. This is what we have been calling the Monster Vote – the unmeasurable vote of those who have rarely – or never – voted previously, but are stepping up this time to defend their country.
But as you dig down into the data of this poll, it’s more good news for Trump. He leads Clinton now in every age group – most significantly in the 18-34 year-old group – the Millennials.
[Insert poll 5]
Their apparent Trump conversion took place on Monday, the 26th – the night of the debate.
My guess would be that Millennials saw Trump as perhaps ill-prepared and inartful, but genuine.
This as opposed to Clinton’s well-rehearsed responses – and apparently even collusion with the moderator, that all added up to a robotic performance with an accent on nasty.
The result – Trump now enjoys a 7.5% lead in that age demographic 45% to 37.5%. But also notice the momentum factor. The momentum factor at this point in the race is THE most important number, and THE most difficult to turn around. Trump is gaining ground and Clinton is plummeting. This momentum factor is apparent in the other age groups as well.
Trump also leads in the 35-64 age group by 3.9% and a 6.7% advantage in the over-65 crowd.
These age subdivisions include men and women and all races.
Trump is blowing Clinton away in the education category. In those with a high school education or less, Trump leads by a whopping 20.3 points – 35 to 55.3% and the momentum is still way in Trump’s favor.
In those with some college, Trump enjoys an 11.6% lead and the momentum looks even better.
Even amongst those with a college degree, where Clinton enjoys a more than 15% advantage, it looks like Trump’s momentum is affecting this group as well, though I’d need a couple more days to confirm a complete reversal.
More surprises when you look at the race by income levels. The poor still favors Clinton by 10 points, but from the momentum perspective, Trump is steadily gaining on her.
Trump enjoys the biggest lead amongst middle-class America to no one’s surprise. Trump enjoys a 16.8% lead – 53.2% to 36.4% lead with great momentum.
Before the debate, Clinton had nearly tied Trump in the $75,000 and over demographic, but after the debate, the momentum is all Trump’s with a 6.7% lead.
The other interesting change numbers are in the male/female demographic. In the last 2 days, Trump is closing the gender gap and now trails Clinton by only 8 points with women, 40 to 48%. But among men, Trump’s lead is HUGE – 19.4 points and headed north.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good Day.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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A 19-year-old Muslim woman has defiantly blasted Islam and says that she was inspired to leave Islam after watching Donald Trump’s speeches.
Trump had no previous knowledge of the letter, and may not yet know about it today, because the young woman posted her letter on the subreddit /r/The_Donald, which calls itself “the largest, best, and closest thing to an official campaign subreddit for Donald Trump 2016.
The young woman goes by her Reddit handle of “exmuslimmaga”.
Her eye-popping revelations confirm some of the worst fears of unrestricted Muslim immigration into the United States.
“Hey the_donald, I'm a 19 year old girl living in America with Muslim immigrant parents. Until yesterday, I had not once removed my Hajib in my life while outside. I tried to do it once when I was 10 years old, and my parents grounded me for a week.
“Let me tell you something right now, there are no "moderate muslims". There are no "assimilated muslims". Throughout my life, I have been to three different mosques regularly. Everyone there had some kind of animosity to America. Either they support jihadist actions outright or they refuse to condemn them, or they victim blame Christians and the West.
“The last time I went to service at my mosque was right after the Brussels attack. You want to know how many of them were condemning it? 0. Not a single one. “
“My parents over facebook (which they refuse to let me post publically to) both started complaining about Islamophobia that would sprout. Not even a faux prayer for the victims.
“I've been secretly watching Trump and his speeches for the last few months, and agreeing with what he says about Islam.…You want to know what people at my mosque say to me when I ask them about Trump or about terrorists crossing the border?
"Don't speak woman."
“While they didn't push me to take off my hajib and renounce Islam, I’ve decided to do it myself. My parents have not assimilated. None of my "friends" from mosque have either.”
“I want to be a doctor, I want to have sex, I want to walk around town without a male chaperone. None of these things are permitted.”
“Let me be clear, no Muslim girl is wearing a hajib by choice. They know that if they're caught without one, they WILL be punished. My parents will probably disown me when they find out, but [I don’t care].”
“The worst part is all the liberals on campus apologizing for muslims, especially the Bernie girls going around wearing Hajibs "in solidarity". “Well congratulations! You are officially a conquered people of the caliphate.”
Then, exmuslimmaga makes her most jaw-dropping revelation to American liberals who support even more Muslim immigration, like President Obama:
“When liberals … encourage more muslims to enter the country, people at the mosques are not sighing in relief that whites aren't racist, they are giddy that they are accepting the new Islamic State so easily.
“Only Trump is standing up to these animals. We don't want a single one in our country. If Trump doesn't win, I will happily die the last woman not covering her head. “Liberals have no idea what Islam really is.”
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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First of all, I want to thank all of you who submitted suggestions for my interview or Press TV last night.
The interview went well. I got about 2 minutes on live TV. I tried to record it with SnagIt. It recorded both sides of the video, but failed to record my side of the audio. I’d welcome suggestions from someone more technically astute than I.
In any case, the bulk of my comments came from your suggestions. The producer at Press TV said he would send a link. In the past, they have been pretty slow to do this, but we’ll see.
Now, for the news:
Sweden’s Prime Minister has called an emergency meeting of ministers to consider the effects Britain’s Brexit vote will have on Sweden.
Britain has been Sweden’s strongest ally in the EU, and so the nation’s ongoing political and economic instability has been heightened.
Similar EU exit moves are now arising in over half a dozen EU nations, including Sweden, Greece, Denmark – and even France. But Sweden has been the hardest hit nation in terms of rape by migrants.
According to Prime Minister Stefan Lofven:
“We respect the decision. The election results are a wake-up call for Europe. But it is worrying.”
Head of the Sweden Democrat party, Jimmie Akesson said:
“The development in the UK is something I hope to see in Sweden.”
“British citizens have shown that EU memberships can be reassessed. The long term trend is now broken and hopefully it will show the way for other countries.“
Now known as the Swexit, Akesson’s comments were blasted as irresponsible by Prime Minister Lofven.
Sweden, like Britain, kept their sovereign national money when they joined the EU, and never adopted the Euro.
Sweden Democrats Parliament member Paula Bieler looks forward to a Swedish Swexit vote:
“Hopefully we will have a referendum as well … and find new ways … to collaborate throughout Europe rather than have this big state forming where we lose our powers over our own country and sovereignty."
Before the Brexit vote, 36% of Swedes said they would back a Swexit, however only 22% wanted to stay. The rest were undecided.
The Brexit contagion is running Europe wide now. A recent Ipsos-MORI poll found that nearly half of voters in 8 EU countries want to be able to vote on quitting the EU, and one-third have already made up their minds to exit if given the choice.
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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France goes to the polls 14 hours from now, and the last polling shows Emmanuel Macron with a 20-point lead over Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen’s fate, as well as the future of France, now rides on the size of the French “Monster Vote”. French political scientist, Aurélien Preud'homme, still proclaims that the race could easily result in an upset based only on voter turnout.
He says that if Le Pen was able to turnout 90% of her voters and a weakened Macron can only turn out only 70% of his; Le Pen wins with 50.025% of the vote.
On Thursday, Wikileaks released damaging banking documents showing that Macron – the Rothschild banker - has been hiding large bank accounts in the Cayman Islands. Macron initially blamed the Russians for the hack, then called the documents forgeries.
However, signature pages were included and 24 hours later a French documents examiner attested that the signatures were genuine. Subsequently, Macron had to backtrack - admitting that the signatures are genuine, but because the Russians hacked them, the documents somehow shouldn’t count in the minds of the French voters.
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Good afternoon, I’m still reporting on Can Le Pen Win Tomorrow?, 1609
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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Fire as a Weapon of WarX
Historically fire has always been used as a weapon of war. In this elaborate 1850 painting by David Roberts entitled “The Seige and Destruction of Jerusalem by the Romans under the command of Titus, A.D. 70”, fire is being used by Roman engineers in an attempt to crack the massive stone walls of the city.
So, fire has been used as a weapon of war for thousands of years. It should be no surprise that in sophisticated civilizations – where history is rarely considered as an important academic subject - fire has been rediscovered as an easy way to cause a lot of destruction and make Americans feel unsafe.
Most of the fires along the Appalachian mountain chain over the Fall are thought to be the work of arsonists.
Two juveniles were arrested yesterday in the fires that nearly consumed Gatlinburg, Tennessee, killing 14 people. Authorities have not released any personal information about the two, however, if they are charged for the murder of 14 people as adults, all will be known.
Interestingly, every report on this arrest listed in the main page of Google News this morning referred to these suspected arsonists as “juveniles” – except for one TV station in western Massachusetts which referred to them as “children”, perhaps in a misguided attempt to soften the crime.
Simultaneously, in Israel, hundreds of fires broke out, burning 500 homes and 32,000 acres of forests and national parks. Twenty three suspected arsonists have been arrested, according to the Jerusalem Post.
Twitter posts celebrated the fires throughout the Arab world with the hashtag, “Tel_Aviv_IsBurning”.
In the midst of these fires Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas sent Arab firefighters to help extinguish the blazes. Some thought this represented a great breakthrough in relations of the two historic enemies.
However, according to the Jerusalem Post article, this move by the Palestinian Authority – or PA - was merely to be used for propaganda purposes to hide the fact that the families of these arsonists will be supported financially by the PA for the entire time of their confinement.
“According to Palestinian law anyone imprisoned for ‘resisting the occupation’ receives a high monthly salary. Therefore, all of those convicted and imprisoned for arson will receive PA salaries ‘from the day of arrest until the day of release.’ ”
“Salaries for terrorists rise the longer terrorists are in jail. Terrorists convicted of murder and serving life sentences will reach a high salary of 12,000 New Israeli Shekles – about $3,000 a month – more than four times the average Palestinian salary.”
Sickeningly, the more people killed, the higher the salary.
“The PA has already paid the five Hamas terrorists who murdered Eitam and Naama Henkin in front of their four children last October in total 91,000 NIS as reward for their murders.
“And terrorist Abdallah Barghouti has already received 645,000 New Israeli Shekles for building the bombs that murdered 67 Israelis….”
… in various bombings in Israel.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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Yesterday the New York City Commission on Human Rights updated the city’s Transgender Rights Bill. The new update makes it illegal to – for example -- intentionally call a transgender woman by an incorrect pronoun – such as “him” – when he/she has made it clear that she prefers female pronouns and a female title.
This is not some wild conspiracy theory if property owners or employers (those with deep pockets) violate the new law, they can be fined to the tune of $250,000!
Other violations with similar fines are refusing to allow a newly self-identified “woman” from using women’s bathrooms or ever locker rooms at workout or sporting clubs.
I know this seems like fiction, but it is now enforceable in New York City to the tune of a quarter of a million bucks per incident. Now that’s totalitarian muscle!
The good news - although it could be years in the making – is this will NEVER survive a constitutional challenge – unless an outgoing President Obama – or an incoming President Clinton – puts Obama on the Supreme Court come mid-2017.
But even then, it seems implausible that even the most radical of the existing Supremes would want to sign onto a decision that so completely destroys the First Amendment to the Bill of Rights. It’s not the 1st Amendment for no reason!
At what point are Democrats going to disengage from this sort of radical thinking?
They are not going to be in power forever! The great American pendulum of freedom is going to swing back at some point.
Even the Democrat plan to dramatically boost immigrant populations will backfire at some point. They didn’t come here hoping to live un-free!
I’m still reporting. Good day
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About 8 pm last night, I was deep in production with a story on comments Newt Gingrich made just before the Debate #11 in Detroit.
I got an email from a friend with the audio tape of the cross talk between Beck and his co-host earlier in the day. I was not aware of the numerous other print reports of the incident. I listened to the audio objectively and drew my own conclusions.
This morning, the video version of the incident became available, and I’ve now changed my mind. It’s clear that Beck was not threating Donald Trump.
He was jokingly jabbing at his producer for the dumb joke he was trying to make about Beck’s line “sitting in their shoes.”
With only the audio available, this was an improbable story line, but once you see the video, it becomes clear.
Dana Lash, who I usually like, a fellow talk show host on TheBlaze, labeled our incorrect conclusion as yellow journalism – i.e. something done intentionally to smear Mr. Beck’s reputation.
No, it was simply a mistake – a mistake fueled by a combination of Beck’s emotional hatred of Mr. Trump, and our deep concern about Mr. Trump’s safety – a la Bobby Kennedy.
So, I was wrong. Retraction made, apologies offered. Onwards.
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Good evening, I’m still reporting on
SR 1246 – First Poll on Trump’s Naughty Word Scandal
Well, the first polling results are in on the Donald Trump 11-year-old Naughty-Word-Scandal. According to this morning’s USC Daybreak Poll, the overall reaction is --- a resounding yawn.
Trump’s support did drop one tenth of a percentage point, from 46.2 to 46.1%, but Hillary Clinton dropped 4 times as much - .4% - down to 43%. So, Trump leads overall by 3.2%
Bottom line, Trump actually gained an additional third of a percentage point on Clinton.
Now, granted, the scandal broke in the early afternoon, but still bad news travels fast and overall, we suspect that this will be seen as yet another Clinton dirty trick in the end.
Digging down into the data of the poll tends to confirm this. Trump still leads with every age group. Although Trump support dropped in the 18-34 group yesterday, so did Clinton’s, and Trump maintains a quarter of a percentage point lead among Millennials.
Trump gained in the other two age groups. In the 35-64 group, Trump now leads by 3.2%.
In the 65 and over group, the group that votes in the highest percentages, Trump now leads Clinton by 6-and-a-half points.
You can’t argue with the numbers, and remember, this was the most accurate poll in the 2012 Presidential race. And another thing to remember is, every voter falls into one of these 3 categories.
Interestingly, Trump actually gained a full point-and-a-half on Clinton among women and now trails by 11.5 percentage points. What you hear day after day in the MSM is that Clinton leads Trump by 20 points or more among women. However, with men, Trump still crushes Clinton by 15.8 percentage points.
Overall, the only impact on Trump so far was he slightly increased his lead over Clinton.
Our expectation is that Clinton will gain on Trump tomorrow morning, then Sunday morning things will return to normal as the media begins to focus on scandals that matter. And then, Sunday night, Debate #2 will drive the polling for the next couple of days.
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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