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9 Jan 2020 02:14:18 UTC
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The Bayesian Trap
Bayes' theorem explained with examples and implications for life.
Check out Audible: http://ve42.co/audible
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I didn't say it explicitly in the video, but in my view the Bayesian trap is interpreting events that happen repeatedly as events that happen inevitably. They may be inevitable OR they may simply be the outcome of a series of steps, which likely depend on our behaviour. Yet our expectation of a certain outcome often leads us to behave just as we always have which only ensures that outcome. To escape the Bayesian trap, we must be willing to experiment.
Special thanks to Patreon supporters:
Tony Fadell, Jeff Straathof, Donal Botkin, Zach Mueller, Ron Neal, Nathan Hansen, Saeed Alghamdi
Useful references:
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg
Check out Audible: http://ve42.co/audible
Support Veritasium on Patreon: http://ve42.co/patreon
I didn't say it explicitly in the video, but in my view the Bayesian trap is interpreting events that happen repeatedly as events that happen inevitably. They may be inevitable OR they may simply be the outcome of a series of steps, which likely depend on our behaviour. Yet our expectation of a certain outcome often leads us to behave just as we always have which only ensures that outcome. To escape the Bayesian trap, we must be willing to experiment.
Special thanks to Patreon supporters:
Tony Fadell, Jeff Straathof, Donal Botkin, Zach Mueller, Ron Neal, Nathan Hansen, Saeed Alghamdi
Useful references:
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg
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English
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Created
1 year ago
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video/mp4
English
Controlling
VIDEO
A PHY
a-physics-prof-bet-me-10,000-i'm-wrong
A UCLA Physics Professor bet me $10,000 that my video about going downwind faster than the wind was wrong. This video is sponsored by Brilliant. The first 200 people to sign up via https://brilliant.org/veritasium get 20% off a yearly subscription.
For more information about the Veritasium Science Communication Contest check out -- https://ve42.co/contest
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The wager agreement: https://ve42.co/wager
Prof. Kusenko's slides: https://ve42.co/Kusenko
My rebuttal: https://ve42.co/rebuttal
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Huge thanks to Xyla Foxlin for building the model cart, and making the instructions so accessible to the public. Check out Xyla's video -- https://youtu.be/VUgajGv4Aok
A massive thanks to Bill Nye, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, and Sean Carroll for witnessing the signing of the wager.
A huge thanks to Prof. Alexander Kusenko for being a man of honour -- it's a difficult thing to change your mind, especially in a public forum.
A huge thanks to Prof. Mark Drela for the interview and help making sure we got the physics right.
A massive thanks to Rick Cavallaro for making Blackbird, all your insights, analysis, data, and general help with these videos -- it was so fun to work with you on this crazy project -- check out Rick's channel https://ve42.co/Rick
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References
M. Drela. Dead-Downwind Faster Than The Wind (DDWFTTW)
Analysis (Jan 2009) -- https://ve42.co/Drela
2013 AAPT United States Physics Olympiad Semifinal Exam -- https://ve42.co/AAPT2013
Rick's treadmill footage -- https://ve42.co/Treadmill
Rick's multiple explanations of how Blackbird works -- https://ve42.co/DDWFTTW
Blackford, B. L. (1978). The physics of a push‐me pull‐you boat. American Journal of Physics, 46(10), 1004-1006. — https://ve42.co/Blackford1979
Forum discussions -- https://ve42.co/forum Blog -- https://ve42.co/blog1 and retraction https://ve42.co/BlogRetraction
Bauer, A. B. (1969, April). Faster than the Wind. In First AIAA Symposium on Sailing. -- https://ve42.co/Bauer1969
Bauer's Obituary -- https://ve42.co/BauerObituary
Gaunaa, M., Øye, S., & Mikkelsen, R. F. (2009). Theory and design of flow driven vehicles using rotors for energy conversion. In EWEC 2009 Proceedings online EWEC
Md. Sadak Ali Khan, Syed Ali Sufiyan, Jibu Thomas George, Md. Nizamuddin Ahmed. Analysis of Down-Wind Propeller Vehicle. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 3, 4. (April 2013) ISSN 2250-3153.
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Special thanks to Patreon supporters: Mike Tung, Evgeny Skvortsov, Me
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video/mp4
English
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1 year ago
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video/mp4
English
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video/mp4
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Some of the work shown is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Grant No. EFRI-ODISSEI-1240417. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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