Minute Memo #198 - House Votes to Restrict Syrians
The U.S. House of representatives yesterday voted to place security restrictions on President Obama’s plan to import as many as 200,000 refugees fleeing from Iraq and Syria buy a 289 to 137 margin. 47 Democrats voted with Republican members in a rare show of bi-partisan support. The bill would require the FBI, and two other intel agencies to certify that each refugee allowed into the U.S. has been satisfactorily screened for potential terrorism ties and is not a threat to national security. Pres. Obama has threatened to veto the legislation from Congress, but the house could override with just 287 votes, two less than they got yesterday. However the US Senate well need 67 out of 100 votes to override a presidential veto. The vote comes on the heels of a new report from the Center for immigration studies (C.I.S.) that shows the United States could support 12 refugees in safe havens in their homeland for the cost of bringing one refugee to the United States. CIS official Jessica Vaughn told radio show host Howie Carr yesterday: ”On average, each refugee coming from the Middle East to be resettled in the United States costs about $64,000 in the first five years.” She said that’s about 12 times the cost of keeping them in Safe havens, and actually increases the chance that they maybe able to go home again. Immigrants from the region in the past have been primarily military-aged young Moslem men. This picture was taken by Reuters yesterday of refugees in the Aegean Sea. Every single face is of a young, military-aged male. Not a single woman or child is seen. Why not give precedence to Christian families because Christians are most at risk of death because Christians are undergoing genocide in the region? President Obama has never spoken out about the ongoing and well documented Christian genocide. I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good Day.
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Good afternoon, I’m still reporting on Trump
SR 1226 –Trump Snatches Lead in All Age Groups from Crooked Hillary
Donald Trump is surging farther ahead of Hillary Clinton in the USC Daybreak Poll.
Since the debate on Monday night, Trump has risen by 1.1% to 47.3% and Clinton has fallen one percent to 42.7%. That gives Trump a very healthy 5.6% lead. Notice also that today, Trump has surged above the poll’s “95% confidence interval”. According to the USC pollsters:
“Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.”
One of the interesting things about the Daybreak poll is it the only one that does not rely only on those who have voted in previous elections. This is what we have been calling the Monster Vote – the unmeasurable vote of those who have rarely – or never – voted previously, but are stepping up this time to defend their country.
But as you dig down into the data of this poll, it’s more good news for Trump. He leads Clinton now in every age group – most significantly in the 18-34 year-old group – the Millennials.
[Insert poll 5]
Their apparent Trump conversion took place on Monday, the 26th – the night of the debate.
My guess would be that Millennials saw Trump as perhaps ill-prepared and inartful, but genuine.
This as opposed to Clinton’s well-rehearsed responses – and apparently even collusion with the moderator, that all added up to a robotic performance with an accent on nasty.
The result – Trump now enjoys a 7.5% lead in that age demographic 45% to 37.5%. But also notice the momentum factor. The momentum factor at this point in the race is THE most important number, and THE most difficult to turn around. Trump is gaining ground and Clinton is plummeting. This momentum factor is apparent in the other age groups as well.
Trump also leads in the 35-64 age group by 3.9% and a 6.7% advantage in the over-65 crowd.
These age subdivisions include men and women and all races.
Trump is blowing Clinton away in the education category. In those with a high school education or less, Trump leads by a whopping 20.3 points – 35 to 55.3% and the momentum is still way in Trump’s favor.
In those with some college, Trump enjoys an 11.6% lead and the momentum looks even better.
Even amongst those with a college degree, where Clinton enjoys a more than 15% advantage, it looks like Trump’s momentum is affecting this group as well, though I’d need a couple more days to confirm a complete reversal.
More surprises when you look at the race by income levels. The poor still favors Clinton by 10 points, but from the momentum perspective, Trump is steadily gaining on her.
Trump enjoys the biggest lead amongst middle-class America to no one’s surprise. Trump enjoys a 16.8% lead – 53.2% to 36.4% lead with great momentum.
Before the debate, Clinton had nearly tied Trump in the $75,000 and over demographic, but after the debate, the momentum is all Trump’s with a 6.7% lead.
The other interesting change numbers are in the male/female demographic. In the last 2 days, Trump is closing the gender gap and now trails Clinton by only 8 points with women, 40 to 48%. But among men, Trump’s lead is HUGE – 19.4 points and headed north.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good Day.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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The Houston Chronicle is reporting that Ted Cruz may have violated Texas state law with an illegal fundraising letter. The paper reported:
“The solicitation came in an envelope featuring a return address in official government type and the words ‘check enclosed. The ‘check’ was a fake check made out to Cruz’s campaign, accompanied by a missive asking the recipient to send in a ‘matching donation.’ “
Last year, Texas House Bill 1265 was passed that required solicitations resembling government notices, checks or negotiable invoices to include, “in at least 18-point type,” the words “SPECIMEN-NON-NEGOTIABLE.”
The Cruz mailer says in 6-point type – 1/3 of the legal size – “this check is a facsimile not redeemable or negotiable and has no cash value.”
This is the law in Cruz’s home state, Texas – the state where he served as Solicitor General – the chief lawyer in the state.
In the past month, Cruz has been caught lying about not having health insurance, lying about why he doesn’t tithe at his church, lying about his position on amnesty for illegals, and a stack of lies about Donald Trump. Even Fox News has called him out for lying about President Obama’s record on jobs.
I do not say this lightly – Ted Cruz is THE most dangerous candidate who has run for President in the last 10 years, excepting Hillary Clinton and Al Gore. As I dubbed him 2 months ago and got a lot of negative blowback for it – Ted Cruz is literally Clinton 3.0.
America cannot afford to elect another habitual liar as president. We only have one more shot to get this right.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Donald Trump got some more good news. The respected Morning Consult poll was just released. It shows Trump pulling away from the rest of the pack with 44% of the vote – more than Cruz, Carson and Rubio combined.
Ted Cruz was flat compared to the previous week, at 17%. Ben Carson tied with Marco Rubio at 10% - Carson having risen one point from the week before, and Rubio having dropped a precipitous 5 percentage points.
47% of Trump’s support came from voters who self identify as independents. This is the primary reason Republican insiders are beginning to view Trump as inevitable – because he can draw from the ever-important center of the American electorate.
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
The latest Morning Consult tracking poll taken yesterday shows Trump’s lead over Republican rivals is increasing.
Trump leads with 32% of the vote – up 7% from last week, followed by Jeb Bush with 11% and Dr. Ben Carson with 9%.
The Morning Consult poll is taken once a week, but due to fast-moving events was taken on Sunday this week, instead of Monday.
It sampled 746 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
Ted Cruz saw his support drop from 7% last week to 4% this week. Carly Fiorina saw her support jump from 1% before the debate to 3% after.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
I want to preface this with an admission – I once upon a time smoked pot. However, once I became a father, that stopped cold, almost exactly 30 years ago.
However, I do have insight into this area. In general, I’m convinced that pot is far less damaging to society than alcohol and I’m sure eventually a preponderance of medical and sociological studies will prove this.
For years I have supported legalizing pot, for a number of reasons. It is far less damaging physically than either cigarette smoking or alcohol abuse.
Another factor is that over the past two generations, we’ve ruined the lives of millions of young Americans with arrest records.
But there is another factor; we have been feeding the beast south of the border. Violent drug cartels have made so much money smuggling pot through Mexico that Mexico is a borderline failed state – when the rule of law is no longer effective.
Narcos have had sufficient cash to bribe government officials, police, and possibly even military leaders to ensure they are above the law.
We can’t take all the money out of the drug trade, but we can diminish their power significantly. It’s just like your personal finances; once you get used to living your life at a certain salary, if you suddenly take even a 10% cut, it can radically change your life.
What if your income suddenly fell to only 1/3 of last year’s? That would really hurt.
Well, the results are coming in now. Prices for wholesale pot sold out of the Mexican state of Sinaloa have now fallen from $100 per kilo to $30 per kilo, according to a Dec. 30 report in the LA Times.
At that price, one of the smaller farmers in the report says this will be his last year of growing pot. Corn is now more profitable.
According to Juan Guerra, Sinaloa’s Agriculture Secretary:
“People don't want to abandon their illicit crops, but more and more they are realizing that it is no longer good business.”
Here’s why. This is the state-by-state map of marijuana laws in the U.S. It’s still totally illegal in nearly half of the states, however look at the results.
Since 2010, the number of Mexican acres under marijuana cultivation has declined by over 25% - from 44,000 acres down to 32,000 acres this year, according to the Mexican Attorney General's office.
In that same period, the number arrests by federal agents involving foreign-grown marijuana dropped by nearly 50%.
I couldn’t find an estimate for reductions in cartel profits, but you can be sure it has plummeted. And, as the little growers give up, they will continue to plummet for the foreseeable future.
This is good news, because if there is one thing that should guide the US policy to Mexico it should be to do whatever it takes to return Mexico to a real republic run for the benefit of the governed.
Of course, we seem to have that problem in the United States of late as well.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
The British pound slumped in yesterday’s market as news that the proponents of Britain leaving the European Union are gaining momentum as the latest polls show them leading for the first time by a 3-point margin in one, and a 4-point margin in another.
On May 18, one poll showed the Remain crowd with a comfortable 18-point lead. But yesterday’s new telephone poll of over 4,000 people showed the Leave group with a 3 point lead, 45 leave to 42% stay.
Another poll done by IC put the Leave contingent ahead by 4% - 52 to 48%.
Former Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, who is now a member of parliament, pledged to deploy a tough new immigration system based on the Australian-style points system, if Brexit passes to halt the massive immigrant invasion. The latest figures show that net migration to the UK has risen to 330,000 per year.
Johnson, along with the former Secretary of State for Justice, Michael Grove – also now a member of Parliament – recently calculated that if Britain votes to Brexit, the amount of money saved would mean the British government could scrap the VAT on household energy bills.
The Brexit vote comes on June 23.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Back in 1986, after spending 6 years and 13 million dollars trying to fix Central Park’s Wollman Skating Rink, Mayor Ed Koch reluctantly gave the job to a 39-year-old flamboyant New York Real Estate developer, Donald Trump.
Trump completed the job in four months at a cost of only 2.5 million dollars. This old CBS News video has surfaced recounting the opening of the rink:
[insert]
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Hillary Clinton’s years of lies thinly covered by her illegal at-home email server are rapidly coming apart thanks to yesterday’s testimony by FBI Director James Comey.
The situation was revealed to be so serious that Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan has written a letter to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper asking if Mrs. Clinton and her top aides will be allowed access to classified briefings after her nomination.
“It would send the wrong signal to all those charged with safeguarding our nation’s secrets if you choose to provide her access to this information despite the FBI’s findings.”
Yesterday’s hearings were not only damning to the former Secretary of State but to the Director of the FBI as well.
[insert Lawyers]
No, her intent was to be sure that everything that could be politically embarrassing, or worse, criminal – was removed.
[insert Gowdy & Comey]
I don’t believe that. Her attorney’s primary mission was not to look for work-related emails. Their primary mission was to keep Clinton out of jail. That meant Clinton Foundation stuff would be the primary thing. I don’t think even classified material would be a higher priority for them. They had to read them. Impossible that they did not.
[insert Classified Marking]
This is utter nonsense. He is stretching so far to excuse her behavior, it’s beyond belief. Now this next guy is how an intelligence profession responds to questions.
[insert NSA Guy]
However, according to today’s Wall Street Journal, several national security experts say it will be virtually impossible to stop Mrs. Clinton from getting her hands on additional classified material – and even designating members of her staff who will have access as well.
According to Anthony Cordesman, former Pentagon director of intelligence assessment:
“If the president wants to give clearances to somebody, well guess what, they are the commander-in-chief.”
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.