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Minute Memo #194 - Trump at 42%
Despite a recent over the top attack on rival Ben Carson, Donald Trump has surged to a massive lead among likely Republican primary voters, according to a new Reuters poll.
The poll was a 5-day rolling average that ended after Trump’s Saturday Night Live performance, but before the Friday the 13th Paris ISIS attack.
Trump now leads Ben Carson by 18 points, 43% to 25%. Third is Marco Rubio at 10%.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
The poll was a 5-day rolling average that ended after Trump’s Saturday Night Live performance, but before the Friday the 13th Paris ISIS attack.
Trump now leads Ben Carson by 18 points, 43% to 25%. Third is Marco Rubio at 10%.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Good Labor Day Sunday, I’m still reporting on the polls.
Why do I report on polls anyway. If they are all fake, why bother?
Well, they aren’t all fake; it’s all about methodology.
Methodology is the basis of all polling - how you ask the questions, but most importantly who you question.
With that is mind, since polls aren’t measuring – and can’t measure – the Monster vote, all you can say is that polls sometimes measure relative changes in direction.
Why can’t they measure Trump’s monster vote? Because methodology depends on voter’s past performance.
They can’t poll for people who have not voted in the past 16 years. There are no stats.
In addition, very few try to sort out the crossover vote, which always favors Trump this year. And that’s the monster vote.
Having said that, you know it’s pretty bad when even polls which can’t measure this giant Trump reserve vote start saying Trump is pulling ahead even with this disadvantage.
In yesterday’s USC Daybreak poll, Trump is now ahead of Clinton by 2.6%, 45% for Trump to 42.4% for Clinton. Notice that the gray 95% certainty area is now closing in fast as we are only 65 days out from election day.
Yesterday, another big national poll showed Trump leaping ahead of Clinton in the Reuters/Ipsos poll. But the big news is that this is an 8-point swing in favor of Trump in just the last week.
Now let’s look at the all-important swing state of Virginia. In August, various polls showed Clinton up by between 8 and 12 points. However, a poll done by Emerson college from Tuesday to Thursday of last week shows Clinton up by only one point, 44 to 43%.
But Emerson, to its credit also goes searching for Trump’s Monster vote by looking at the vote of the independents. They are breaking for Trump by nearly a 2-1 margin in Virginia – 47% to 28.
Last week, Emerson also looked at the other swing states. Clinton and Trump are tied in Ohio at 43%.
Last month in Pennsylvania, Clinton’s lead was between 8 and 12%, but now it’s been cut to 3% - 46 to 43.
Even in Michigan, Clinton now leads Trump by only 5% - 45 to 40.
So at this point, this race is all about direction and momentum. Trump has it, while Clinton’s is going into reverse with every day of her further absence on the campaign trail.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Good morning, I’m still reporting on Trump.
President Trump gave his first cable-exclusive interview to Sean Hannity of Fox News yesterday.
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Good morning, I’m still reporting on President Trump's 1st Interview with Sean Hannity
President Trump gave his first cable-exclusive interview to Sean Hannity of Fox News yesterday.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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Now that it appears that Donald Trump may become the next President of the United States, some hope of a peaceful future for civilization can begin to sprout again as US policy switches from the failing Obama/Merkel economic model to the more practical solutions being employed by the nations of central Europe.
Hungary and its security-minded central European neighbors seem to be on the leading edge of the learning curve with their prescriptions for the migrant invasion – keep immigration low and legal, and strict enforcement of the rule of law. It’s nothing new. It’s the bedrock of civilization.
Although Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his neighboring countries have been criticized in the liberal European media as being too tough on the migrant invasion, high-tech investors are placing huge bets that theirs is the only winning formula for long-ranged peace and stability going forward.
For example, this morning, the Budapest Business Journal announced that Hyperloop Transportation Technologies (HHT), signed a declaration of intent yesterday with the Slovak government to bring the world’s first commercial transonic train to Central Europe.
The new rail line, called a Hyperloop, will run just under the speed of sound inside a huge a vacuum tube at transonic speeds of 758 miles per hour – or 1,200 kilometers per hour – by far the fastest in the world.
The first Hyperloop train will run from Vienna, Austria, to Budapest, Hungary with a stop in Bratislava, Slovakia. The trip that normally takes 3 hours by car, will take roughly 20 minutes, including a 2-minute stop in Bratislava.
HHT is currently planning the first 5-mile test line for the Hyperloop train system in California’s Quay Valley with a projected 2018 completion date.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Beth - You Can Get Thin Again - Part 2, 1551
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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The socialist mayor of Annezin in northern France was horrified as the election results came late Sunday evening and he realized that his typically socialist constituency had voted overwhelmingly for Marine Le Pen.
Daniel Delomez, the mayor of Annezin since 2008 cursed his citizens and tweeted out that he’s considering resigning rather than devote any more of his life to them.
The town’s voters gave Le Pen 38% of the vote from a field of 11 candidates. Interestingly, the second choice of his town was the far-left candidate, who won 19% of the vote.
Those two totals alone, if representative of French sentiment nationwide in the next round, would give Le Pen a landslide victory just 11 days from now.
However, that’s not the way American pollster, Nate Silver sees it. Silver, who was exposed as a heavily-biased pollster in the Trump/Clinton election, was outed as constantly devising clever ways to put the best face on election polling a year ago at the behest of the Obama White House.
Silver says that the major European pollsters are estimating a Le Pen loss of between a 20 and 30 points in the final round.
According to an Aug. 2, 2016 interview in “Real. True. News.”, an unnamed source inside, 538, Silver’s his own polling firm, outed him as a liberal:
“Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results.
“You're buying media. It's like ads or . . . newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want."
It was at that point, that Trump started passing Clinton in the real polls, however Silver was publishing articles saying just the opposite:
“Trump’s Slump Deepens in Polls.”
Saying that Trump was trailing Clinton by a 9 to 14-point margin, Silver was putting Clinton’s victory odds at 74%.
“It’s a big social club. The pollsters all work together,” said the 538 insider, who also revealed the propagandistic nature of the leftist pollsters in the U.S., generally.
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Mayor Threatens to Quit Because His Town Voted for Le Pen, 1595
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We also talked to John Doe over a private connection. He talked about what led him to quit the Cruz campaign. He explained that it was over this very complex plan hatched by none other than Amanda Carpenter – a former Cruzer, who had been hired by CNN.
Carpenter rolled out the idea on or about Jan. 15, 2016 – 17 days before the Caucus. The plan was able to manipulate Carson out of delegates that should have voted for him and sent them mostly to Cruz.
“The basic story is I have worked on republican campaigns since I graduated from ….. 24 years ago. Not once have I quit a campaign even when I had disagreements with strategy, language, anything really.”
“I had to quit the Cruz campaign after in Mid January I was flown from South Carolina to Iowa for the home stretch before the Iowa Caucus.”
“Once in Iowa I was instructed to make calls and monitor other volunteers making calls - hundreds of calls a day. Lying about Trump as well as Senator Rubio.”
“I bit my tongue at first knowing it was wrong. Then 2 weeks prior to the Iowa Caucus myself and a few other Cruz top campaign aids were in a room and we received the results of our internal poll.”
“Trump was leading Cruz second and Ben Carson 3rd with a shockingly high amount of support - meaning much more support than what CNN/Fox had him at.”
“The kicker was that a majority of Carson supporters had Cruz as their second choice.”
“At that time the plan to tell people Ben Carson was dropping out of the race on caucus day was hatched.
“Coordinated with former Cruz Op Amanda Carpenter at CNN. Actually, this operation was her idea initially.”
“I strongly opposed this, but they decided they were going to do it anyways so I quit January 18th. “
My wife, Beth responded:
“Wow, not surprised at all - he always did seem slimy to us and I have always said it was more like a cult.”
“You mentioned that it seemed like Jonestown. In what way?“
John Doe: “Just in the way that almost everyone knew the Ben Carson thing was coming. Everyone knew it was wrong but no one said anything because Cruz has them all convinced he is some conservative God and anything he suggests is for the betterment of society.”
Beth Still:
“My husband wants to know if he can use this information and should he say from a reliable source, or characterize it in another way, or if not we certainly understand.”
“Yes you can use the info just don't want it getting back to me. I’m actually off to …. next week to start working as …. for [another campaign].”
“Call me a Cruz operative with 24 years of political experience. You can use the picture of my offer letter from the campaign just blur out the name ….”
And finally, we asked John Doe if there was anything to the allegations in the National Enquirer about Cruz having mistresses.
“It’s 100% true that he has affairs. All top-level staffers got an email directly from Heidi Cruz saying that she knew about it and it was ok, and for us to not concern ourselves with it.”
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Good evening, I’m still reporting on politics.
With the departure of Scott Walker from the Republican presidential race, and Jeb Bush still declining in the polls, the Republican establishment is placing heavy bets on the two major anti-Trump candidates left – Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio.
Just remember that Rubio was the leader of the Gang of 8 – which supported essentially open borders to undercut the wages of middle class Americans to provide bigger profits for Facebook and Microsoft – oh, and Miss Fiorina’s former employer, HP.
So let’s see if she ever mentions the Gang of 8 in a negative context during her run.
But guess what else he is famous for in the U.S. Senate? He cast the deciding vote that allowed FastTrack to pass 60 to 37.
Oh, and guess what else? Rubio’s staff will still not say whether Senator Rubio actually read the bill – ever!
According to Taylor Brown, a conservative columnist for the influential South Carolina online FITSNews:
“It’s completely irresponsible. If you want to change international business, and commerce in general, for the next 50+ years, you need to know what’s in it. You’d think after the ACA failed so miserably without being read, our Senators would have learned their lesson.”
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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I neglected to include an easy to file list of the 98 Tories yesterday. But as it turns out, that’s ok, because The Hill has updated the list to 101 members which now includes Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
An earlier version of their list incorrectly included Dana Loesch.
These names will be in the Description box directly below this video window. This window only allows about 815 words. But this story is 700 words and so the list will fit. If this list changes, I’ll update in the Description box below. The names are in alpha order by last name:
1. Rep. Justin Amash (Mich.)
2. Gov. Charlie Baker (Mass.)
3. Brian Bartlett, former Mitt Romney aide and GOP communications strategist
4. Glenn Beck, radio host
5. Michael Berry, radio host
6. Max Boot, former foreign policy adviser to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)
7. Brent Bozell, conservative activist
8. Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.)
9. Bruce Carroll, creator GayPatriot.org
10. Jay Caruso, RedState
11. Mona Charen, senior fellow at Ethics and Public Policy Center
12. Linda Chavez, columnist
13. Dean Clancy, former FreedomWorks vice president
14. Eliot Cohen, former George W. Bush official
15. Former Sen. Norm Coleman (Minn.)
16. Charles C. W. Cooke, writer for National Review
17. Doug Coon, Stay Right podcast
18. Rory Cooper, GOP strategist, managing director Purple Strategies
19. Jim Cunneen, former Calif. assemblyman
20. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (Fla.)
21. Steve Deace, radio host
22. Rep. Bob Dold (Ill.)
23. Erick Erickson, writer
24. Mindy Finn, president, Empowered Women
25. David French, writer at National Review
26. Jon Gabriel, editor-in-chief, Ricochet.com
27. Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.)
28. Michael Graham, radio host
29. Jonah Goldberg, writer
30. Alan Goldsmith, former staffer, House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
31. Stephen Gutowski, writer Washington Free Beacon
32. Rep. Richard Hanna (N.Y.)
33. Jamie Brown Hantman, former special asst. for leg. affairs for 34. President George W. Bush
Stephen Hayes, senior writer at The Weekly Standard
Doug Heye, former RNC communications director
Quin Hillyer, editor at National Review Online & the American Spectator
Ben Howe, RedState writer
Former Rep. Bob Inglis (S.C.)
Cheri Jacobus, GOP consultant and former Hill columnist
Robert Kagan, former Reagan official
Randy Kendrick, GOP mega-donor
Matt Kibbe, former FreedomWorks CEO
Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.)
Philip Klein, managing editor at the Washington Examiner
Bill Kristol, The Weekly Standard editor
Mark Levin, radio host
Justin LoFranco, former Scott Walker aide
Kevin Madden, former Mitt Romney aide
Bethany Mandel, senior contributor at The Federalist
Tucker Martin, former Gov. Bob McDonnell's (R-Va.) comm. director
Former RNC Chairman Mel Martínez (Fla.)
Liz Mair, GOP strategist
Lachlan Markey, writer for the Free Beacon
David McIntosh, Club for Growth president
Dan McLaughlin, editor at RedState.com
Ken Mehlman, former RNC chairman
Tim Miller, Our Principles PAC
Joyce Mulliken, former Washington state senator
Ted Newton, political consultant & former Mitt Romney aide
James Nuzzo, former White House aide
Katie Packer, chairwoman of Our Principles PAC
Former Gov. George Pataki (N.Y.)
Former Rep. Ron Paul (Texas)
Katie Pavlich, Townhall editor and Hill columnist
Brittany Pounders, conservative writer
Rep. Reid Ribble (Wis.)
Marlene Ricketts, GOP mega-donor
Former Gov. Tom Ridge (Pa.)
Rep. Scott Rigell (Va.)
Mitt Romney, 2012 GOP presidential nominee
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.)
Paul Rosenzweig, former deputy assistant secretary, DHS
Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post conservative blogger
Patrick Ruffini, partner, Echelon Insights
Sarah Rumpf, former BreitBart contributor
Mark Salter, writer and former aide to John McCain
Rep. Mark Sanford (S.C.)
Sen. Ben Sasse (Neb.)
Elliott Schwartz, Our Principles PAC
Gabriel Schoenfeld, senior fellow, Hudson Institute
Tara Setmayer, CNN analyst and former GOP staffer
Ben Shapiro, editor-in-chief The Daily Wire
Evan Siegfried, GOP strategist and commentator
Ben Stein, actor and political commentator
Brendan Steinhauser, GOP consultant
Stuart Stevens, former Romney strategist
Paul Singer, GOP mega-donor
Erik Soderstrom, former field director for Carly Fiorina
Charlie Sykes, radio host
Brad Thor, writer
Michael R. Treiser, former Mitt Romney aide
Daniel P. Vajdich, former national security adviser to Ted Cruz
Connor Walsh, former digital director for former Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.)
Former Rep. J.C. Watts (Okla.)
Peter Wehner, New York Times contributor
Former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (N.J.)
George Will, writer
Rick Wilson, Republican strategist
Nathan Wurtzel, Make America Awesome super-PAC
Bill Yarbrough, chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of Ohio
Dave Yost, Ohio auditor of state
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Good evening, I’m still reporting on Political Science at Stony Brook University
Donald Trump Has an 87% Chance of Beating Crooked Hillary Clinton
On Feb. 25th with the primaries barely underway, we ran a report on the prediction of Professor Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University in Stoneybrook, New York. He then predicted that Donald Trump had a 97% chance of beating Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Now remember, when he made this prediction only 4 Republican primaries had taken place, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. We ran the prediction in Still Report #652 – 634 Reports ago.
Professor Norpoth’s system has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912 - except for the 1960 election where the Chicago mob held back the Chicago vote until they saw how many votes Jack Kennedy needed to beat Nixon.
Norpoth’s model measures a candidate’s pre-nomination performances in primaries and caucuses. It also measures voter excitement and certain patterns in electoral cycles.
According to Norpoth:
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent….”
“When I started out … a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke. Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore. Take it to the bank.”
Tucker Carlson had Prof. Norpoth on Fox earlier today.
[insert]
Just a reminder, this is the last day of our Fall fundraiser. We really appreciate the generosity of those who have donated and pledged to keep us going. The one thing that we do need is a faster computer. That is absolutely the bottleneck that keeps us from producing twice as many stories a day.
For example, Trump’s Gettysburg speech today at noon took us probably 3 hours of what’s called rendering time. That’s time where I’m just sitting around waiting on the computer to process video. Although it was over about 12:30 today, we didn’t get it up until 4 pm, and that’s with everything set up for maximum speed.
Unfortunately, a Mac with a significant enough speed bump to make it worthwhile will set me back at least $3,000, and a top-of-the-line Mac would be $6,000.
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I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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