Full story: http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2014/11/04/how-important-is-long-distance-travel-in-the-spread-of-epidemics/ Three scenarios comparing the spread of an epidemic based on the increasing likelihood that people travel long distances from the center of the outbreak. The two-dimensional model takes into account only those people who are susceptible and those who are infected. The epidemics start in the center of each square and, as time progresses, spread in space. Long-range jumps – mimicking air travel, for example – lead to sub-outbreaks. If long-distance jumps are rare, the main outbreak will quickly merge with the satellite outbreaks, leading to a rippling, wave-like growth (left). As the likelihood of long-distance jumps increases, the epidemic spread exhibits a super-linear power-law growth (center), stretched exponential or “metastatic” growth (right) or, in a worst case scenario, exponential growth (not shown). Graphic animations by Oskar Hallatschek, UC Berkeley, & Daniel S. Fisher, Stanford University. Video editing by Christian Collins, UC Berkeley Media Relations http://www.berkeley.edu http://www.facebook.com/UCBerkeley http://twitter.com/UCBerkeley http://instagram.com/ucberkeleyofficial https://plus.google.com/+berkeley

Earth and Planetary Science C20, 001 - Fall 2014 Earthquakes in Your Backyard - Richard Allen All Rights Reserved