Still Report #888 - Russian Orthodox Church Declares Holy War
The Russian Orthodox Church, which many times speaks for the Russian government, has declared a Holy War against Islamic terrorists. Patriarch Kirill made the declaration to the audience gathered at the Museum of the Great Patriotic War on Friday, May 6, at the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Moscow. “This is the fight against the fearsome foe that is currently not only spreading evil through the Middle East but also threatening the whole of mankind.” “Today, we call this evil terrorism. This is why the war on terrorism today is the holy war today. I pray to God that people all over the world understand this and stop dividing terrorists into good and bad ones as well as connecting the war on terror with their own goals, that are often non-declared yet strongly present on the political agenda.” The remarkable thing about patriarch Kirill’s remarks is that this is even news. Why do we have to go halfway round the world to find a major religious figure who paints an honest picture of the threat? Interestingly, this truth has been shouted down by one-half of the political structure in the United States, but is now emerging from a nation which was America’s strongest adversary of the last half century. Hopefully, this represents the first diplomatic signals of a significant geopolitical realignment – a true détente - among nations that finally realize globalism equals an iron-clad world dictatorship – a dictatorship will use Islam as its foot soldiers now, and its police after the conquest. Only a return to the strong borders of nationalism offers any of hope of preventing this emerging dictatorship. As I’ve written for well over 30 years now, their New World Order may put an end to the wars that have ravaged Europe for thousands of years, but at what cost? An end to humanity’s 2500-year-long quest for freedom and democratic self-governance. I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Good evening. I’m still reporting on Trump.
The second new poll tonight shows Trump capturing the lead in yet another important swing state, Iowa.
According to a new Monmouth University poll released this afternoon, Trump now leads Clinton 44 to 42 percent, with Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1%.
According to Patrick Murray of Monmouth:
“Iowa could be the leading edge of a Midwest push for Trump.”
Trump had a 4-point edge over Clinton among independents – 39 to 35%. Clinton had a 21-point edge among women, but that was more than cancelled out by Trump’s 27-point lead among men – 56% to 29%.
The survey was taken from July 8 thru 11th – immediately after FBI Director James Comey’s Congressional testimony on July 7th.
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
I’ve been reporting on the USC Daybreak poll, which still has Clinton ahead of Trump by seven-tenths of one percent.
Then someone emailed me a website called LongRoom. It compares the various statistical skews or biases of all the polls and removes them.
As we saw in Still Report #1096 – How Clinton Rigs the Polls, at Nate Silver’s “538” office, pollsters congregate in their break room and talk about “skews” and biases.
Applying skews to data can be completely legitimate. For example, let’s say you get opinions from 200 people in city A and only 100 people from city B.
If you know the historic voting patterns, then you know what weight to give one city over the other. This is a statistical skew.
They are necessary because if historically, twice as many people tend to vote for Democrats in City A then you know you have to apply that skew to that city’s data to get a fair view – make them equally weighted.
The alternative would be to try to get an exact number of people from each city to answer your questions based on their previous biases – an impossible task.
But the downside is that polls are products that someone buys and pays for and they expect certain results. So, the easiest way to provide what the customer wants is to manipulate the skews.
Longroom understands this and gives you data that unbiases the skews, so you get an honest look at the polling data coming in from all the pollsters.
[Insert]
For example, here you see that the average media polling bias today is 4.2% favoring the Democrats. Then it lists the biases of 5 of the top polls.
You’ll notice that I was on the right track. The USC Daybreak poll is the least biased with only 1.4% bias towards the Dems. CNN, however has an outrageous 7.1% bias.
If we look at today’s Daybreak poll, Clinton leads with 44.7% and Trump has 44%. That means that Trump’s real number – when you add in 1.4% of his initial 44% should be 44.60% and Clinton’s number should go down to 44.07. That puts Trump in the lead by over one-half point, instead of down by .7 percent.
So while this does show the relative direction of the votes, we all know that the “Monster” vote is going to be a huge factor and it is entirely outside of this statistical system.
No matter how accurately these polls are cleansed of the skews or biases, the Monster vote is coming from people who just not been counted in the past. They either haven’t voted in the past, or would have been counted as either independents or Democrats, but now will be crossing over en masse.
Bottom line - these polls can say whatever they want, but no one knows how big the monster vote will be – 10%, 20% or more, it is literally the 600-pound gorilla in this room this year.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Donald Trump has closed to within one percentage point of Canadian migrant, Ted Cruz, in the Texas primary.
The Emerson College survey found Cruz 29%, Trump 28%, Rubio 25, Kasich 9, and Carson 4%.
The Emerson survey was done Sunday through Tuesday and consisted of polling 446 likely primary voters with a 4.6% margin of error.
A poll released yesterday by the Univ. of Texas and the Texas Tribuse showed Cruz ahead of Trump by 8 points.
Cruz 37%, Trump 29%, Rubio 15%, Bush 6%, Kasich 5% and Carson 4%. The poll was conducted the day before the South Carolina primary and had a margin of error of 3.5%.
The difference in these polls is critical. Only the latest one had any chance of measuring the quickly-building bandwagon effect that Trump’s win in South Carolina has had.
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Good evening, I’m still reporting on Brexit.
At 10 pm eastern, 03:00 London time, there have been several major developments that bode well for the Leave group.
First of all, in light of the better showing than predicted early on for the Leave crowd, the nation’s top pollster, John Curtice tweeted the following at 0;:21 Friday morning London time:
“At the moment at least the Leave side are favourites to win this Referendum – but there is still a very long way to go.”
90 minutes later, the University of East Anglia predicted a win for Leave. They predicted the vote for the Remain group to be 48.9%.
By 02:09 am, for the first time, the Leave group became the favourite of the betting market.
Two minutes later, at 02:11 am, a tweet from the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuennsberg said:
“Senior labour figure tells me ‘this has gone, Leave to win…”
As a result, world stock markets have turned negative, typically down 1.5%. But the British pound is down more than 4.2% - the greatest drop in 3 decades.
Beginning at 02:18 the Scottish vote began to come in. It was expected to vote strongly for Remain and has, but the turnout is unexpectedly low, so it is seen as a plus for the Leave group.
By 02:36 the betting markets have now moved the odds of a Leave win up to 55%.
[insert graph]
By 03:02, the Leave group has recaptured the lead with 50.3% of the vote.
By 03:09, London time, or 10:09 Eastern, the chief political correspondent of the Telegraph, Christopher Hope, said that at this point, even if the Remain group could pull off a win, he cannot last as Prime Minister come dawn on Friday.
By 03:10, the experts at East Anglia post another update to their previous forecast. They now say that the probability of Britain Remaining has now dropped to zero!!! They have dropped the final Remain vote share to 47.1%
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán says he expects at least 3 other European nations, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia to follow Hungary’s October referendum to reject the EU’s migrant quotas.
“If the Hungarian referendum in October proves to be successful, that might lead to a tsunami of referendums across Europe and will crack the EU even more,” said Orbán.
On Oct. 2, as many as 5 million Hungarians are expected to vote on the question:
“Do you want the European Union to be entitled to prescribe the mandatory settlement of non-Hungarian citizens in Hungary without the consent of parliament?”
Orbán’s political party, Fidesz considers the referendum to be a
“… matter of life and death as the future of Hungary is at stake.”
Hungarian politicians have come to a consensus that the EU bureaucrats in Brussels have overstepped their mandate and have little respect for the sovereignty of its member nations and the will of their people.
Orbán believes the entire EU project is at a crossroads. It either needs a drastic power shift back to the people, or its member nations will fall like dominos.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Good evening, I’m still reporting on
China Snubs N. Korean Coal. Orders West VA Coal, 1575
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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President Donald Trump has put his foot down again – on the United Nations. The White House sent a strong signal that it will no longer tolerate the UN’s long record of anti-Israel actions.
President Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, former Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, moved to block the appointment of former Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad as the UN representative to Libya.
The appointment was designed to bolster the legitimacy of the Palestinian’s international clout, which undermines the ongoing peace process with Israel.
The move is part of the Trump administration’s broad range of policy moves to oppose former President Obama’s last minute directives aimed at severing ties with Israel.
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Good morning, I’m still reporting on Trump to UN, We Will Not be Intimidated
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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Hillary Clinton’s years of lies thinly covered by her illegal at-home email server are rapidly coming apart thanks to yesterday’s testimony by FBI Director James Comey.
The situation was revealed to be so serious that Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan has written a letter to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper asking if Mrs. Clinton and her top aides will be allowed access to classified briefings after her nomination.
“It would send the wrong signal to all those charged with safeguarding our nation’s secrets if you choose to provide her access to this information despite the FBI’s findings.”
Yesterday’s hearings were not only damning to the former Secretary of State but to the Director of the FBI as well.
[insert Lawyers]
No, her intent was to be sure that everything that could be politically embarrassing, or worse, criminal – was removed.
[insert Gowdy & Comey]
I don’t believe that. Her attorney’s primary mission was not to look for work-related emails. Their primary mission was to keep Clinton out of jail. That meant Clinton Foundation stuff would be the primary thing. I don’t think even classified material would be a higher priority for them. They had to read them. Impossible that they did not.
[insert Classified Marking]
This is utter nonsense. He is stretching so far to excuse her behavior, it’s beyond belief. Now this next guy is how an intelligence profession responds to questions.
[insert NSA Guy]
However, according to today’s Wall Street Journal, several national security experts say it will be virtually impossible to stop Mrs. Clinton from getting her hands on additional classified material – and even designating members of her staff who will have access as well.
According to Anthony Cordesman, former Pentagon director of intelligence assessment:
“If the president wants to give clearances to somebody, well guess what, they are the commander-in-chief.”
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.
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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has taken a firm stand for his nation against illegal immigration – the most determined all of Europe.
This speech was given last week as Orban swore in 462 new border guards to patrol an enhanced fence across Hungary’s southern border.
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Good morning, I’m still reporting on Viktor Orban - EU Migration - the Trojan Horse of Terror, 1544
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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